WHAT’S Inflation and Deflation and a Speculation Concerning the Bitcoin Future

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Recently I started buying bitcoins and I’ve heard a lot of talks about inflation and deflation but not many people actually know and consider what inflation and deflation are. But let’s focus on inflation.

We always needed ways to trade value and probably the Coinjoin most practical way to do it is to link it with money. Previously it worked quite well because the money that has been issued was associated with gold. So every central bank had to have enough gold to cover back all the money it issued. However, in the past century this changed and gold is not what’s giving value to money but promises. Since you can guess it’s very easy to abuse to such power and certainly the major central banks are not renouncing to do so. For this reason they’re printing money, so in other words they are “creating wealth” out of thin air without really having it. This technique not only exposes us to risks of economic collapse but it results also with the de-valuation of money. Therefore, because money is worth less, whoever is selling something has to increase the price of goods to reflect their real value, that is called inflation. But what’s behind the amount of money printing? Why are central banks doing this? Well the answer they would give you is that by de-valuing their currency they’re helping the exports.

In fairness, in our global economy that is true. However, that is not the only real reason. By issuing fresh money we are able to afford to pay back the debts we had, in other words we make new debts to cover the old ones. But that’s not only it, by de-valuing our currencies we are de-facto de-valuing our debts. That is why our countries love inflation. In inflationary environments it’s better to grow because debts are cheap. But what are the consequences of all this? It’s hard to store wealth. If you keep carefully the money (you worked hard to get) in your money you’re actually losing wealth because your cash is de-valuing pretty quickly.

Because each central bank has an inflation target at around 2% we can well say that keeping money costs most of us at least 2% each year. This discourages savers and spur consumes. This is how our economies are working, based on inflation and debts.

What about deflation? Well this is exactly the opposite of inflation in fact it is the biggest nightmare for the central banks, let’s see why. Basically, we have deflation when overall the costs of goods fall. This would be caused by an increase of value of money. First of all, it would hurt spending as consumers will be incentivised to save money because their value increase overtime. On the other hand merchants will be under constant pressure. They will have to sell their goods quick otherwise they will lose money as the price they will charge for their services will drop over time. But if there is something we learned in these years is that central banks and governments usually do not care much about consumers or merchants, what they care probably the most is DEBT!!. In a deflationary environment debt will become a real burden as it will only get bigger as time passes. Because our economies derive from debt you can imagine what will be the consequences of deflation.

So in summary, inflation is growth friendly but is founded on debt. Therefore the future generations will pay our debts. Deflation alternatively makes growth harder but it means that future generations won’t have much debt to pay (in such context it will be possible to afford slow growth).

OK so how all this fits with bitcoins?

Well, bitcoins are designed to be an alternative for the money and to be both a store of value and a mean for trading goods. They are limited in number and we’ll never have a lot more than 21 million bitcoins around. Therefore they are designed to be deflationary. We now have all seen what the results of deflation are. However, in a bitcoin-based future it would still be easy for businesses to thrive. The ideal solution will be to switch from a debt-based economy to a share-based economy. Actually, because contracting debts in bitcoins would be very expensive business can still obtain the capital they want by issuing shares of these company. This could be an interesting alternative as it will offer you many investment opportunities and the wealth generated will undoubtedly be distributed more evenly among people. However, just for clarity, I must say that part of the costs of borrowing capital will undoubtedly be reduced under bitcoins as the fees will be extremely low and there will not be intermediaries between transactions (banks rip people off, both borrowers and lenders). This would buffer a number of the negative sides of deflation. Nevertheless, bitcoin s will face many problems unfortunately, as governments still need fiat money to pay back the huge debts that people inherited from the past generations.

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